Bitcoin: how the four-year cycle framework holds up now that institutions set the marginal price
The halving cycle shaped every previous Bitcoin bull market. With regulated funds now setting the marginal bid, the framework needs…
Tag: Volatility
Every story we have filed in this section, newest first.
USD/JPY: the carry trade explained properly, and why it unwinds so violently
The yen carry trade earns slowly and loses quickly. Understanding the asymmetry is the difference between riding the trend and…
Analysis
Crude oil: the supply-demand balance is the story, everything else is timing
Inventories, spare capacity and the shape of the futures curve tell you more about where crude is going than any single geopolitical headline.
Forex News
GBP/USD: sterling trades on two curves, and traders usually watch the wrong one
Sterling behaves like a rates currency on quiet days and a risk currency on loud ones. Knowing which regime you are in determines whether the chart…
Analysis
Ethereum: valuing a network that is also a monetary asset
ETH is simultaneously a commodity that pays for computation, a yield-bearing staked asset and a speculative store of value. Those three identities pull the price in…
Analysis
S&P 500 and the dollar: what the equity tape tells currency traders
The equity index is not a currency driver, but it is an excellent real-time indicator of which regime the FX market is trading in.
Education
Position sizing: the only part of trading you fully control
You cannot control whether a trade works. You can control exactly how much it costs when it does not — and that single decision explains most…
Analysis
Altcoins: a framework for separating infrastructure from narrative
Most altcoin rallies are liquidity events dressed as technology stories. A few are not. Telling them apart requires looking at usage, supply schedules and who is…
Technical Analysis
Trading the London and New York overlap: the four hours that make the day
Roughly 12:00 to 16:00 GMT is when depth peaks, spreads tighten and most daily ranges are completed. Here is how to structure a session around it.