Latest posts
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EUR/USD: Why the rate differential still sets the ceiling on any euro rally
Every euro rally of the past two years has run into the same wall: the spread between what the market expects from the Fed and what it expects from the ECB. Here is how to read that spread on a chart.
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Central banks: what a policy statement actually tells you, line by line
The rate decision is rarely the news. The market trades the changed adjectives, the vote split and the projections — in that order.
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USD/JPY: the carry trade explained properly, and why it unwinds so violently
The yen carry trade earns slowly and loses quickly. Understanding the asymmetry is the difference between riding the trend and being the liquidity for someone else’s exit.
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GBP/USD: sterling trades on two curves, and traders usually watch the wrong one
Sterling behaves like a rates currency on quiet days and a risk currency on loud ones. Knowing which regime you are in determines whether the chart level in front of you means anything.
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Bond yields are the FX market’s nervous system: a practical guide
If you trade currencies without watching the curve, you are reacting to moves that were already visible somewhere else twenty minutes earlier.
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Why inflation data moves currencies less than the reaction function does
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to it. Half of macro trading is judging that willingness.