Central banks: what a policy statement actually tells you, line by line
The rate decision is rarely the news. The market trades the changed adjectives, the vote split and the projections —…
Category: Central Banks
Policy decisions, minutes, speeches and the rate expectations that drive currency markets.
Why inflation data moves currencies less than the reaction function does
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to…
Central Banks
Forward guidance: how central banks move markets without moving rates
Policy works through expectations, not through the overnight rate itself. That makes the words a committee chooses a policy instrument in their own right.
Central Banks
Quantitative tightening: the balance sheet as a policy tool
Shrinking a central bank balance sheet removes a price-insensitive buyer from the bond market. The effect is slow, hard to measure, and occasionally abrupt.