Latest posts
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Gold: the three inputs that actually explain XAU/USD, and the one that does not
Real yields, official-sector buying and the dollar do most of the work in gold. Inflation headlines, despite the folklore, do surprisingly little on their own.
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Crude oil: the supply-demand balance is the story, everything else is timing
Inventories, spare capacity and the shape of the futures curve tell you more about where crude is going than any single geopolitical headline.
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Weekly forecast: gold’s path depends on real yields, not on the headlines
Three scenarios for XAU/USD, each tied to a specific macro condition, with the behaviour that would confirm or kill it.