Central banks: what a policy statement actually tells you, line by line
The rate decision is rarely the news. The market trades the changed adjectives, the vote split and the projections —…
Category: Fundamental Analysis
Growth, inflation and policy research that frames the medium-term trend.
Bond yields are the FX market’s nervous system: a practical guide
If you trade currencies without watching the curve, you are reacting to moves that were already visible somewhere else twenty…
Analysis
S&P 500 and the dollar: what the equity tape tells currency traders
The equity index is not a currency driver, but it is an excellent real-time indicator of which regime the FX market is trading in.
Central Banks
Why inflation data moves currencies less than the reaction function does
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to it. Half of macro trading is…
Bonds & Rates
The yield curve, read properly: what inversion does and does not predict
Inversion is the most over-quoted signal in macro. What it actually encodes is an expectation of future easing - and the lag between signal and event…
News
Reading PMIs: the diffusion index that leads everything else
Purchasing managers surveys arrive weeks before hard data and move currencies more than their sample size deserves. The trick is knowing what a diffusion index can…
News
Labour market data: why the unemployment rate is the least useful number in the report
The headline everyone quotes is a ratio with a moving denominator. The numbers that shift rate expectations sit further down the release.
Central Banks
Forward guidance: how central banks move markets without moving rates
Policy works through expectations, not through the overnight rate itself. That makes the words a committee chooses a policy instrument in their own right.