EUR/USD: Why the rate differential still sets the ceiling on any euro rally
Every euro rally of the past two years has run into the same wall: the spread between what the market expects from the Fed and what it expects from the ECB. Here is how…
Every euro rally of the past two years has run into the same wall: the spread between what the market expects from the Fed and what it expects from the ECB. Here is how…
The yen carry trade earns slowly and loses quickly. Understanding the asymmetry is the difference between riding the trend and being the liquidity for someone else's…
Inventories, spare capacity and the shape of the futures curve tell you more about where crude is going than any single geopolitical headline.
Sterling behaves like a rates currency on quiet days and a risk currency on loud ones. Knowing which regime you are in determines whether the chart…
ETH is simultaneously a commodity that pays for computation, a yield-bearing staked asset and a speculative store of value. Those three identities pull the price in…
If you trade currencies without watching the curve, you are reacting to moves that were already visible somewhere else twenty minutes earlier.
A scenario framework for the dollar index rather than a single prediction: what has to happen for each path, and the level that invalidates it.
Three scenarios for XAU/USD, each tied to a specific macro condition, with the behaviour that would confirm or kill it.
The equity index is not a currency driver, but it is an excellent real-time indicator of which regime the FX…
A level is not a magic number. It is a record of where large amounts of business were transacted —…
Most altcoin rallies are liquidity events dressed as technology stories. A few are not. Telling them apart requires looking at…
Most crypto trading is denominated in stablecoins rather than dollars. What backs them, and how quickly that backing can be…
You cannot control whether a trade works. You can control exactly how much it costs when it does not —…
Regulation, client money handling and execution quality matter far more than the size of the welcome bonus. A practical checklist…
Roughly 12:00 to 16:00 GMT is when depth peaks, spreads tighten and most daily ranges are completed. Here is how…
A capitalisation-weighted index can rise while most of its members fall. Knowing how much of the move belongs to a…
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to…
An index CFD is not the index, and it is not a share in anything. Understanding what sits behind the…
Inversion is the most over-quoted signal in macro. What it actually encodes is an expectation of future easing - and…
Most journals record what happened. A useful one records what you believed at the time, which is the only way…
Any rule can be made profitable on past data. The discipline is knowing the specific ways a backtest flatters itself,…
The order type you choose decides whether you control the price or the certainty of getting filled. You cannot have…