Altcoins: a framework for separating infrastructure from narrative
Most altcoin rallies are liquidity events dressed as technology stories. A few are not. Telling them apart requires looking at…
Category: Analysis
Chart structure, key levels and the market context behind each move.
Trading the London and New York overlap: the four hours that make the day
Roughly 12:00 to 16:00 GMT is when depth peaks, spreads tighten and most daily ranges are completed. Here is how…
Analysis
Index concentration: when a handful of stocks becomes the whole market
A capitalisation-weighted index can rise while most of its members fall. Knowing how much of the move belongs to a few names changes how you read…
Central Banks
Why inflation data moves currencies less than the reaction function does
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to it. Half of macro trading is…
Bonds & Rates
The yield curve, read properly: what inversion does and does not predict
Inversion is the most over-quoted signal in macro. What it actually encodes is an expectation of future easing - and the lag between signal and event…
News
Reading PMIs: the diffusion index that leads everything else
Purchasing managers surveys arrive weeks before hard data and move currencies more than their sample size deserves. The trick is knowing what a diffusion index can…
News
Labour market data: why the unemployment rate is the least useful number in the report
The headline everyone quotes is a ratio with a moving denominator. The numbers that shift rate expectations sit further down the release.
Central Banks
Forward guidance: how central banks move markets without moving rates
Policy works through expectations, not through the overnight rate itself. That makes the words a committee chooses a policy instrument in their own right.
Forex News
AUD/USD: a commodity currency that trades on someone else’s economy
The Australian dollar responds to Chinese industrial demand and global risk appetite more reliably than to Australian data. That makes it a growth proxy first and…
Forex News
USD/CAD: the oil link that works until it doesn’t
The Canadian dollar tracks crude closely enough to tempt traders into treating it as an oil proxy. The relationship breaks at exactly the moments that cost…
Analysis
EUR/GBP: the cleanest way to trade a domestic rates view
Both legs share most of their global risk exposure, so it largely cancels out. What is left is the policy gap between two neighbouring central banks.