EUR/USD: Why the rate differential still sets the ceiling on any euro rally
Every euro rally of the past two years has run into the same wall: the spread between what the market…
Tag: US Dollar
Every story we have filed in this section, newest first.
Gold: the three inputs that actually explain XAU/USD, and the one that does not
Real yields, official-sector buying and the dollar do most of the work in gold. Inflation headlines, despite the folklore, do…
News
Central banks: what a policy statement actually tells you, line by line
The rate decision is rarely the news. The market trades the changed adjectives, the vote split and the projections — in that order.
Forex News
GBP/USD: sterling trades on two curves, and traders usually watch the wrong one
Sterling behaves like a rates currency on quiet days and a risk currency on loud ones. Knowing which regime you are in determines whether the chart…
News
Bond yields are the FX market’s nervous system: a practical guide
If you trade currencies without watching the curve, you are reacting to moves that were already visible somewhere else twenty minutes earlier.
Analysis
Weekly forecast: the US dollar and the three questions that decide the week
A scenario framework for the dollar index rather than a single prediction: what has to happen for each path, and the level that invalidates it.
Forecasts
Weekly forecast: gold’s path depends on real yields, not on the headlines
Three scenarios for XAU/USD, each tied to a specific macro condition, with the behaviour that would confirm or kill it.
Analysis
S&P 500 and the dollar: what the equity tape tells currency traders
The equity index is not a currency driver, but it is an excellent real-time indicator of which regime the FX market is trading in.
Central Banks
Why inflation data moves currencies less than the reaction function does
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to it. Half of macro trading is…
Bonds & Rates
The yield curve, read properly: what inversion does and does not predict
Inversion is the most over-quoted signal in macro. What it actually encodes is an expectation of future easing - and the lag between signal and event…
News
Reading PMIs: the diffusion index that leads everything else
Purchasing managers surveys arrive weeks before hard data and move currencies more than their sample size deserves. The trick is knowing what a diffusion index can…
News
Labour market data: why the unemployment rate is the least useful number in the report
The headline everyone quotes is a ratio with a moving denominator. The numbers that shift rate expectations sit further down the release.