EUR/USD: Why the rate differential still sets the ceiling on any euro rally
Every euro rally of the past two years has run into the same wall: the spread between what the market…
Tag: Interest Rates
Every story we have filed in this section, newest first.
Gold: the three inputs that actually explain XAU/USD, and the one that does not
Real yields, official-sector buying and the dollar do most of the work in gold. Inflation headlines, despite the folklore, do…
News
Central banks: what a policy statement actually tells you, line by line
The rate decision is rarely the news. The market trades the changed adjectives, the vote split and the projections — in that order.
Forex News
USD/JPY: the carry trade explained properly, and why it unwinds so violently
The yen carry trade earns slowly and loses quickly. Understanding the asymmetry is the difference between riding the trend and being the liquidity for someone else's…
Forex News
GBP/USD: sterling trades on two curves, and traders usually watch the wrong one
Sterling behaves like a rates currency on quiet days and a risk currency on loud ones. Knowing which regime you are in determines whether the chart…
News
Bond yields are the FX market’s nervous system: a practical guide
If you trade currencies without watching the curve, you are reacting to moves that were already visible somewhere else twenty minutes earlier.
Analysis
Weekly forecast: the US dollar and the three questions that decide the week
A scenario framework for the dollar index rather than a single prediction: what has to happen for each path, and the level that invalidates it.
Forecasts
Weekly forecast: gold’s path depends on real yields, not on the headlines
Three scenarios for XAU/USD, each tied to a specific macro condition, with the behaviour that would confirm or kill it.
Central Banks
Why inflation data moves currencies less than the reaction function does
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to it. Half of macro trading is…