EUR/USD: Why the rate differential still sets the ceiling on any euro rally
Every euro rally of the past two years has run into the same wall: the spread between what the market…
Tag: EUR/USD
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Weekly forecast: the US dollar and the three questions that decide the week
A scenario framework for the dollar index rather than a single prediction: what has to happen for each path, and…
Technical Analysis
Trading the London and New York overlap: the four hours that make the day
Roughly 12:00 to 16:00 GMT is when depth peaks, spreads tighten and most daily ranges are completed. Here is how to structure a session around it.
Central Banks
Why inflation data moves currencies less than the reaction function does
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to it. Half of macro trading is…
News
Reading PMIs: the diffusion index that leads everything else
Purchasing managers surveys arrive weeks before hard data and move currencies more than their sample size deserves. The trick is knowing what a diffusion index can…
Analysis
EUR/GBP: the cleanest way to trade a domestic rates view
Both legs share most of their global risk exposure, so it largely cancels out. What is left is the policy gap between two neighbouring central banks.