EUR/USD: Why the rate differential still sets the ceiling on any euro rally
Every euro rally of the past two years has run into the same wall: the spread between what the market…
Tag: ECB
Every story we have filed in this section, newest first.
Central banks: what a policy statement actually tells you, line by line
The rate decision is rarely the news. The market trades the changed adjectives, the vote split and the projections —…
Central Banks
Why inflation data moves currencies less than the reaction function does
A hot inflation print is only bullish for a currency if the market believes the central bank will respond to it. Half of macro trading is…
Central Banks
Forward guidance: how central banks move markets without moving rates
Policy works through expectations, not through the overnight rate itself. That makes the words a committee chooses a policy instrument in their own right.
Analysis
EUR/GBP: the cleanest way to trade a domestic rates view
Both legs share most of their global risk exposure, so it largely cancels out. What is left is the policy gap between two neighbouring central banks.